eminiattack

S&P 500 approaches 200-day Moving Average: 954.58

2009-05-09T20:51:00.001-07:00

S&P 500 approaches 200-day Moving Average: 954.58 (+39.36% from 666.79 52-week low and multi-year lows).
Futures: ESM9 (June ES futures) 924.75 (39.5% from 662.75 52-wk Low)
High/Low: 1441 High/ 662.75 Low
960 = 38.2% Fibonacci Re-tracement from 52-wk Low
1008 = Nov. 4 Election Day high
1051.88 = 50% Fib Re-tracement
1143.71 = 38.2% Fib Re-tracement from 52-wk High

Given the huge move (+39.5% up) for the ES, some pullback is expected, but pushing past the 200-day Moving Average seems likely. A move past 960 (38% Fib) makes 1000 possible.
A significant rejection of the 200-day Moving Average would make for a possible top.
Since the SPX 100-day Moving Average is 831.22, this rejection could cause a severe pullback.

Crude Oil (CLM9) is extremely bullish, and a leading indicator of the economy.
Oil Futures: $58.63 CLM9 (+43.8% from $40.85 52-wk Low) (147.91 52-wk High)
$58.75 hit today, was a 13-wk High. Given price action, a move past $60 looks likely.
$59.82: 14-day RSI at 70%. $68.70: 14-day RSI at 80%. $81.75: 38.2% Fib from 52-wk Low.

Natural Gas(NGM9) is crossing over bullish, and another leading indicator.
Natural Gas Futures: $4.36 (+15.73% for the week)
$4.42: 38.2% Fib from 13-wk High $5.14, which provides significant resistance for NGM9.

Euro Currency EUR/USD (1.3402) is approaching a 13-wk High of 1.3738 and a 38.2% Fib at 1.37446, from the 52-wk Low 1.2327. If the Euro can push past 1.38, the 50% Fib 1.41825 from the 52-wk High 1.6038 should provide significant resistance. Needless to say, the Euro has turned bullish, and the appetite for risk has improved considerably.

The question that should be asked is whether this is a bear market rally or the start of a new bull market. Everyone knows the economy is in a severe recession, and unemployment, housing and construction are in awful shape. But we do have a global Plunge Protection Team (PPT) hard at work throwing free money at the problem. With US interest rates coming off their lows, (30-yr Treasury at 4.274%, up from 2.52%, and the 10-yr at 3.293, up from 2.038%), rising long=term interest rates are another sign of an improving economy. All of these factors lead me to be very cautiously bullish, as we have seen early signs of improvement but the economy is still very weak. If/when the SPX can push past 1000, many more investors would become more bullish, which could be enough to get the economy re-ignited. Time will tell.

BULLISH STOCKS:

2009-04-26T14:13:00.001-07:00

BULLISH STOCKS:

(BCS): http://stockcharts.com/char... - 200-day $14.09. (SCHW): http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?schw - 200-day $17.96. (LVS): http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?lvs - 200-day $16.79. (BRY): http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?bry - 200-day 20.41. (PETD): http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?petd$$ 200-day $28.89. (NBR): http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nbr 200-day $18.73.

Chrysler bankruptcy near, UK may lose AAA, ES lower

2009-04-23T18:48:00.000-07:00

Chrysler dead, down goes ES. ES bounced PP 843, 50% re-Tracement looks at 848.50. Don't know if we get up that high but Short 848. What do you think? Also, London Telegraph say UK may lose AAA as debt hits Pounds 1.4 Trillion L over next 5 yrs. What do you think of overnight, FTSE, DAX could get hit hard tonight.

ESM9: R1 855.25, PP 843.25, S1 836.75, S2 824.75

Globex: ESM9: High 854, Low 843, Last 846. Ambush Short (50% Re-Tracement): 848.50. Looking to short 848, first target PP 843.25, second target S1 836.75.

Alan Greenspan caused the 2000 stock market crash and today's housing bubble.

2009-04-11T23:45:00.000-07:00

This may come as news to a few, but Alan Greenspan caused the 2000 stock market crash and today's housing bubble. I was a bond trader for the last 15 years and sold stocks, bonds and mutual funds to retail clients for the last 20 years. Mr. Greenspan caused the 2000-2001 Stock Market Crash (totally unnecessary) by raising rates from 4.75% in 1998 to 6.50% needlessly in 2000. Then Alan G. had to drop rates down to 1.75% by the end of 2001, and overshot in needlessly bringing them lower to 1.00%. That is what caused the housing bubble...free money. (teaser mortgage rates at 1% thanks to Greenspan & Co.) The Fed should have kept the rates at 1.75% and started raising them until around 4.0% by 2005. Once again the Fed overshot and kept raising rates WAY past 4.0% (they will never learn equilibrium) and Bernanke further raised rates (unnecessarily) to 5.25% when slowing economic indicators were already evident by deteriorating real estate prices in late 2006. The Fed was still unconvinced that there was a recession when it was clear that it was well underway in 2007, keeping rates at 4.75% until September, 2007 before finally starting a slow, laborious rate decrease until hitting 0.25% in December, 2007. Once again the Fed has overshot, choosing to give away money by massively printing dollars, which explains the sharp rise in gold and oil over the last 6 months. This will inevitably lead to much higher oil and gold prices when the economy improves. The Fed's balance sheet is way too highly leveraged to slow down once the economy ignites, and it will ignite like a cannon over the next year. You will see deceptively low levels of inflation over the next several months but next year the PPI and CPI will shoot up with the rising costs of energy, materials, fertilizer and foodstuffs. Buy fertilizer stocks, grains, gold, silver, platinum, oil, natural gas, iron ore, copper and steel as the world re-flates.

Alan Greenspan caused the 2000 stock market crash and today's housing bubble.

2009-04-11T23:40:00.000-07:00

This may come as news to a few, but Alan Greenspan caused the housing bubble. I was a bond trader for the last 15 years and sold stocks, bonds and mutual funds to retail clients for the last 20 years. Greenspan caused the 2000-2001 Stock Market Crash (totally unnecessary) by raising rates from 4.75% in 1998 to 6.5% needlessly in 2000. Then Alan G. had to drop rates down to 1.75% by the end of 2001, and overshot in needlessly bringing them lower to 1.00%. That is what caused the housing bubble...free money. (teaser rates at 1% thanks to Greenspan & Co.) The Fed should have kept the rates at 1.75% and started raising them until around 4.0% by 2005. Once again the Fed overshot and kept raising rates WAY past 4.0% (they will never learn equilibrium) and Bernanke further raised rates (unnecessarily) to 5.25 when slowing economice indicators were already evident by deteriorating real estate prices in late 2006.The Fed was still unconvinced that there was a recession when it was clear that it was well underway in 2007. keeping rates at 4.75% until September, 2007 before finally starging a slow, laborious rate decrease until hitting 0.25% in December, 2007. Once again the Fed has overshot, choosing to give away money by massively printing dollars, which explains the sharp rise in gold and oil over the last 6 months. This will inevitably lead to much higher oil and gold prices when the economy improves.
The Fed's balance sheet is way too highly leveraged to slow down once the economy ignites, and it will ignite like a cannon over the next year. You will see deceptively low levels of inflation over the next few months but next year the PPI and CPI will shoot up with the rising costs of energy, materials fertilizer and foodstuffs. Buy fertilizer stocks, grains, gold, silver, platinum, oil, natural gas, iron ore, copper and steel as the world re-flates.

2009-04-04T15:04:00.001-07:00

R1 843.75, R2 849.25 PP 833.25, We could drop below the pivot on Monday but I think we test 850+ and could close above 850 with no economic/EPS news on Monday. We may drop on Tuesday if we get a positive close on Monday (5 positive days in a row) and the start of EPS season. AA (Alcoa) reports Tuesday 4/7 after market close.

2009-04-04T14:37:00.000-07:00

The Pivot Point for the ES for Monday, 4/6/09: 833.25
R1 843.75, R2 849.25, R3 865.25
S1 827.75, S2 817.25, S3 801.25

EPS estimates are generally low and the markets have been been climbing despite ugly economic news. If the market can climb on ugly Payroll numbers, UnEmployment & ISM data the ES, YM & NQ can climb on weak EPS data. We may get a little pullback. I think ES might go back to 814 - 817, S1 827.75, S2 817.25 for Monday but I think we re-test 13-wk high 939.25.

Fibonacci Re-Tracements & Extensions:
ES 768.25 is 38% from 52-wk low of 662.75. ES 833.50 is 38% from 13-wk high ES 939.25.

14-Day RSI at 70%: 899.50. ES 900 is a major psychological barrier to the market. ES 900 is also a 35%+ move up from 52-wk low of 662.75 for ESM9.