S&P 500 approaches 200-day Moving Average: 954.58

S&P 500 approaches 200-day Moving Average: 954.58 (+39.36% from 666.79 52-week low and multi-year lows).
Futures: ESM9 (June ES futures) 924.75 (39.5% from 662.75 52-wk Low)
High/Low: 1441 High/ 662.75 Low
960 = 38.2% Fibonacci Re-tracement from 52-wk Low
1008 = Nov. 4 Election Day high
1051.88 = 50% Fib Re-tracement
1143.71 = 38.2% Fib Re-tracement from 52-wk High

Given the huge move (+39.5% up) for the ES, some pullback is expected, but pushing past the 200-day Moving Average seems likely. A move past 960 (38% Fib) makes 1000 possible.
A significant rejection of the 200-day Moving Average would make for a possible top.
Since the SPX 100-day Moving Average is 831.22, this rejection could cause a severe pullback.

Crude Oil (CLM9) is extremely bullish, and a leading indicator of the economy.
Oil Futures: $58.63 CLM9 (+43.8% from $40.85 52-wk Low) (147.91 52-wk High)
$58.75 hit today, was a 13-wk High. Given price action, a move past $60 looks likely.
$59.82: 14-day RSI at 70%. $68.70: 14-day RSI at 80%. $81.75: 38.2% Fib from 52-wk Low.

Natural Gas(NGM9) is crossing over bullish, and another leading indicator.
Natural Gas Futures: $4.36 (+15.73% for the week)
$4.42: 38.2% Fib from 13-wk High $5.14, which provides significant resistance for NGM9.

Euro Currency EUR/USD (1.3402) is approaching a 13-wk High of 1.3738 and a 38.2% Fib at 1.37446, from the 52-wk Low 1.2327. If the Euro can push past 1.38, the 50% Fib 1.41825 from the 52-wk High 1.6038 should provide significant resistance. Needless to say, the Euro has turned bullish, and the appetite for risk has improved considerably.

The question that should be asked is whether this is a bear market rally or the start of a new bull market. Everyone knows the economy is in a severe recession, and unemployment, housing and construction are in awful shape. But we do have a global Plunge Protection Team (PPT) hard at work throwing free money at the problem. With US interest rates coming off their lows, (30-yr Treasury at 4.274%, up from 2.52%, and the 10-yr at 3.293, up from 2.038%), rising long=term interest rates are another sign of an improving economy. All of these factors lead me to be very cautiously bullish, as we have seen early signs of improvement but the economy is still very weak. If/when the SPX can push past 1000, many more investors would become more bullish, which could be enough to get the economy re-ignited. Time will tell.