Saturday, April 11, 2009
Alan Greenspan caused the 2000 stock market crash and today's housing bubble.
This may come as news to a few, but Alan Greenspan caused the 2000 stock market crash and today's housing bubble. I was a bond trader for the last 15 years and sold stocks, bonds and mutual funds to retail clients for the last 20 years. Mr. Greenspan caused the 2000-2001 Stock Market Crash (totally unnecessary) by raising rates from 4.75% in 1998 to 6.50% needlessly in 2000. Then Alan G. had to drop rates down to 1.75% by the end of 2001, and overshot in needlessly bringing them lower to 1.00%. That is what caused the housing bubble...free money. (teaser mortgage rates at 1% thanks to Greenspan & Co.) The Fed should have kept the rates at 1.75% and started raising them until around 4.0% by 2005. Once again the Fed overshot and kept raising rates WAY past 4.0% (they will never learn equilibrium) and Bernanke further raised rates (unnecessarily) to 5.25% when slowing economic indicators were already evident by deteriorating real estate prices in late 2006. The Fed was still unconvinced that there was a recession when it was clear that it was well underway in 2007, keeping rates at 4.75% until September, 2007 before finally starting a slow, laborious rate decrease until hitting 0.25% in December, 2007. Once again the Fed has overshot, choosing to give away money by massively printing dollars, which explains the sharp rise in gold and oil over the last 6 months. This will inevitably lead to much higher oil and gold prices when the economy improves. The Fed's balance sheet is way too highly leveraged to slow down once the economy ignites, and it will ignite like a cannon over the next year. You will see deceptively low levels of inflation over the next several months but next year the PPI and CPI will shoot up with the rising costs of energy, materials, fertilizer and foodstuffs. Buy fertilizer stocks, grains, gold, silver, platinum, oil, natural gas, iron ore, copper and steel as the world re-flates.
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April 13, 2009 - Monday
ReplyDeleteAlan Greenspan caused the 2000 stock market crash and today's housing bubble.格林斯潘在2000年造成股市崩盘,今天的房地产泡沫。
Current mood: smart
Alan Greenspan caused the 2000 stock market crash and today's housing bubble.
This may come as news to a few, but Alan Greenspan caused the 2000-2001
stock market crash and today's housing bubble. I was a bond trader for 15 years and sold stocks, bonds and mutual funds to retail
clients for the last 20 years. Mr. Greenspan caused the 2000-2001 Stock
Market Crash (totally unnecessary) by raising rates from 4.75% in 1998
to 6.50% needlessly in 2000. Then Alan G. had to drop rates down to
1.75% by the end of 2001, and overshot in needlessly bringing them
lower to 1.00%. That is what caused the housing bubble...free money.
(teaser mortgage rates at 1% thanks to Greenspan & Co.) The Fed
should have kept the rates at 1.75% and started raising them until
around 4.0% by 2005. Once again the Fed overshot and kept raising rates
WAY past 4.0% (they will never learn equilibrium) and Bernanke further
raised rates (unnecessarily) to 5.25% when slowing economic indicators
were already evident by deteriorating real estate prices in late 2006.
The Fed was still unconvinced that there was a recession when it was
clear that one was well underway in 2007, keeping rates at 4.75% until
September, 2007 before finally starting a slow, laborious rate decrease
until hitting 0.25% in December, 2007. Once again the Fed has overshot,
choosing to give away money by massively printing dollars, which
explains the sharp rise in gold and oil over the last 6 months. This
will inevitably lead to much higher oil and gold prices when the
economy improves. The Fed's balance sheet is way too highly leveraged
to slow down once the economy ignites, and it will ignite like a cannon
over the next year. You will see deceptively low levels of inflation
over the next several months but next year the PPI and CPI will shoot
up with the rising costs of energy, materials, fertilizer and
foodstuffs. Buy fertilizer stocks, grains, gold, silver, platinum, oil,
natural gas, iron ore, copper and steel as the world re-flates.
格林斯潘在2000年造成股市崩盘 , 今天的房地产泡沫。
这可能会成为新闻的几个,但格林斯潘造成了2000-2001年
股市大跌,今天的房地产泡沫。我是一个债券交易商和销售15年的股票,债券和共同基金的零售价
客户在过去20年。格林斯潘先生造成了2000-2001年库存
崩盘(完全没有必要) ,提高利率从4.75 %在1998年
到6.50 %不必要在2000年。然后艾伦湾不得不辍学率下降到
1.75 %到2001年底,并超越必要将他们
下调至1.00 % 。这就是造成了房地产泡沫的...免费的钱。
(挑逗性抵押贷款利率为1 %归功于格林斯潘公司)美联储
应保持利率在1.75 % ,并开始提高他们,直到
约4.0 % ,到2005年。美联储再次飞过,并不断提高利率
路过去4.0 % (他们将永远不会了解的平衡)和伯南克进一步
提高利率(不必要的) ,至5.25 %时,减缓经济指标
已经明显的恶化,房地产价格在2006年年底。
美联储仍然不相信有一个衰退时,
显然,一个是在2007年顺利进行,维持利率在4.75 %至
2007年9月前终于开始缓慢,费力率下降
直到触及0.25 % ,在2007年12月。再次,美联储却超越,
选择放弃金钱大量印刷美元,
解释了急剧增加黄金和石油在过去6个月。这个
将不可避免地导致更高的石油和黄金价格时,
经济好转。美联储的资产负债表的方式过于高杠杆比率
放慢一旦经济点燃,它将点燃像景隆
在未来一年。你会看到迷惑低通货膨胀水平
在接下来的几个月中,但明年的生产者价格指数和消费物价指数将拍摄
与成本上升,能源,材料,化肥,
食品。购买化肥储备,粮食,黄金,白银,白金,石油,
天然气,铁矿石,铜和钢铁的世界重新flates 。
April 13, 2009 - Lunes
ReplyDeleteAlan Greenspan, causó el accidente de 2000 la bolsa de hoy y burbuja inmobiliaria.
Esto puede venir como a algunas noticias, pero Alan Greenspan causó el 2000-2001
crash bursátil de hoy y burbuja inmobiliaria. Yo era un comerciante de bonos por 15 años y vendido acciones, bonos y fondos mutuos al por menor
clientes durante los últimos 20 años. Sr. Greenspan causó el stock 2000-2001
Mercado Crash (totalmente innecesaria) de la recaudación de las tasas del 4,75% en 1998
innecesariamente a 6,50% en 2000. Alan G. entonces tuvo que retirar a los tipos de
1,75% a finales de 2001, y superado en lo que ellos innecesariamente
inferior a 1,00%. Eso es lo que provocó la burbuja inmobiliaria ... dinero gratis.
(reclamo de hipotecas en el 1% gracias a Greenspan & Co.) La Reserva Federal
deberíamos haber mantenido los tipos en el 1,75% y empezó a aumentar hasta
alrededor de 4,0% en 2005. Una vez más la Reserva Federal y mantenerse más allá de recaudación de las tasas
CAMINO pasado el 4,0% (que no aprenderá nunca el equilibrio) y Bernanke aún más
aumentó las tasas (innecesariamente) a 5,25% cuando los indicadores económicos más lento
ya evidente por el deterioro de los precios inmobiliarios a finales de 2006.
La Reserva Federal estaba todavía sin estar convencido de que existe una recesión cuando se
claro que uno estaba bien en marcha en 2007, manteniendo las tasas en el 4,75% hasta
De septiembre de 2007 antes de iniciar un proceso lento, laborioso tasa de disminución
golpear hasta 0,25% en diciembre de 2007. Una vez más, la Fed ha superado,
elegir a regalar el dinero de la impresión masiva de dólares, que
explica el fuerte aumento en el oro y el petróleo en los últimos 6 meses. Esto
conducirá inevitablemente a mucho más altos del petróleo y los precios, cuando el oro
mejora la economía. El balance de la Fed es demasiado alto coeficiente de endeudamiento
para desacelerar la economía, una vez se enciende, y se inflaman como un cañón
durante el próximo año. Verá engañosamente bajos niveles de inflación
en los próximos meses, pero el próximo año el IPP y el IPC se dispara
con el aumento de los costos de la energía, materiales, fertilizantes y
los productos alimenticios. Comprar existencias de fertilizantes, granos, oro, plata, platino, petróleo,
gas natural, mineral de hierro, el cobre y el acero como el mundo de nuevo flates.