Saturday, April 11, 2009

Alan Greenspan caused the 2000 stock market crash and today's housing bubble.

This may come as news to a few, but Alan Greenspan caused the housing bubble. I was a bond trader for the last 15 years and sold stocks, bonds and mutual funds to retail clients for the last 20 years. Greenspan caused the 2000-2001 Stock Market Crash (totally unnecessary) by raising rates from 4.75% in 1998 to 6.5% needlessly in 2000. Then Alan G. had to drop rates down to 1.75% by the end of 2001, and overshot in needlessly bringing them lower to 1.00%. That is what caused the housing bubble...free money. (teaser rates at 1% thanks to Greenspan & Co.) The Fed should have kept the rates at 1.75% and started raising them until around 4.0% by 2005. Once again the Fed overshot and kept raising rates WAY past 4.0% (they will never learn equilibrium) and Bernanke further raised rates (unnecessarily) to 5.25 when slowing economice indicators were already evident by deteriorating real estate prices in late 2006.The Fed was still unconvinced that there was a recession when it was clear that it was well underway in 2007. keeping rates at 4.75% until September, 2007 before finally starging a slow, laborious rate decrease until hitting 0.25% in December, 2007. Once again the Fed has overshot, choosing to give away money by massively printing dollars, which explains the sharp rise in gold and oil over the last 6 months. This will inevitably lead to much higher oil and gold prices when the economy improves.
The Fed's balance sheet is way too highly leveraged to slow down once the economy ignites, and it will ignite like a cannon over the next year. You will see deceptively low levels of inflation over the next few months but next year the PPI and CPI will shoot up with the rising costs of energy, materials fertilizer and foodstuffs. Buy fertilizer stocks, grains, gold, silver, platinum, oil, natural gas, iron ore, copper and steel as the world re-flates.

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